Completing 1 July Predictions on the “Supplementary Questions” Email you receive from MOE as part of the July Roll Return process.

Suggested minimums for each year level. Feel free to inflate to reflect your circumstances.

Primary:  
Remember to use Table M1 from the March Return for your minimum entry level predictions and Table J1 for all other year levels. (Or M3 and J3, depending on your SMS.)  I recommend that your predicted Yr 1 Adjustment prediction be the same prediction you used for your entry year (Y1) prediction. This means you expect about as many year 1s to enrol between 1 March and 10 October as you expect to enrol from 1 July this year to 1 March next year. Look for the box asking “How many Year ones will enrol between 1 March and 10 October”.  It is on the page following the y1 to Y8 predictions

Contributing Schools: 
Use the primary suggestions above then:
Include a year 7 prediction based on about 25% of your average cohort to take account of April May June enrolments who will spend over 6 years at your school!
To double check, calculate the Y6 plus Y7 total on 2020 Table J1 (the number MOE thinks are leavers) less your current “in house”  year sixes (the number that you know to be leaving) and use the greater of that result or the April May June  25% system above for your y7 prediction.

Area Schools: 
Use the Primary suggestions above for y1 to 8, and the Secondary suggestions below where appropriate for other year levels. (When you contact your contributing schools, ask them to send you their draft J1 Table from their SMS so you can calculate all the available entry year pupils.)

Intermediate and Secondary schools: 
Apply the same proportion of “available enrolments” from each contributing school as you received this year, applied to your expected available enrolments coming next year to predict your entry year numbers for 2020. Where possible ask all of your contributing schools for table J1 so you have the best possible picture of “available enrolments” and thereby can base your predictions on the same information that MOE uses for its initial predictions. For all other year levels use March 2019 to March 2020 progression rates from Tables M1 2019 and M1 2020 applied to this year’s 2020 M1 March roll numbers. (When you contact your contributing schools, ask them to send you their draft J1 Table from their SMS so you can calculate all the available entry year pupils.)

Important for all schools with leavers:  
Please pass on table J1 to all the schools that any of your pupils might be attending next year as soon as you have an accurate draft and before the July roll count date.
 

Link to MOE Provisional Staffing Round processes for all school types.

Gavin Price   NZPF Life Member   027 607 6220    gavin.price@xtra.co.nz www.bankingstaffing.co.nz